Ferrari: from a blog called Fast Machines

Formula None
Posted by Peter Berger | March 01, 2005

A few months ago, in a fit of good sense, I cancelled my satellite dish
service when I realized that I was paying about $40 a month for the
privilege of not actually watching any TV.

And, for the most part, it has worked out. I've read a lot of books.
I've played a lot of videogames. I haven't missed it at all.

Unfortunately, Formula One season starts this weekend. This puts me in a
bit of a bind.

I'm getting some pressure to hook the satellite service back up. Some of
it comes from my friends, who somehow have decided that I'm the one that
has to pay for satellite service so that they can come over at midnight
and drink beer and watch the race. But most of it is internal. The
pressure comes from a hope, completely unjustified by any actual
evidence, that this is the year that things will change. This time,
there will be battles for first place, rather than third. This year the
championship will be decided in the last race, instead of midway through
the season.

I'm Charlie Brown, and Bernie Ecclestone is Lucy, holding that football
and beckoning me over. Formula One is the latent sporting event.

Last year, I correctly predicted the entire shape of the season.
Everyone thought I was joking. I wasn't:

Wanna-be footballer and six-time world champion Michael Schumacher,
Inc, is still the lead driver for Ferrari, and is scheduled to win the
championship once again. Don't look for any surprises here. About once a
month throughout the season various F1 online magazines will post
articles with headlines asking "Can Anyone Beat Schumi? At the risk of
spoiling the season, I can reveal that the answer to that question is
"No." At times, people will propose various theories as to how and why
Michael might manage to lose. Perhaps Bridgestone's tires will fail to
be competetive with Michelin. Fernando Alonso will develop further and
be able to challenge Schumacher in every race. A meteor will fall from
the sky and annihilate the Ferrari paddock. None of these things will
happen. Ferrari will dominate again, and despite what many people wish,
he's not about to retire.

I'm republishing this prediction, unchanged, for 2005. Herr Michael
Schumacher will, once again, crush the field like a sumo wrestler
stepping on a moth. The only drama at each race will be the question of
whether he will deploy his "noble and magnanimous" face in the post-race
press conferences, or his "snarky and condescending" one.

There are, for the third year running, significant rule changes that the
naïve hope will somehow slow down the Ferrari juggernaut as it screams
towards victory at 18,500 RPM. Engines must last for 2 races. New
chassis regulations should reduce the amount of available aerodynamic
downforce. Most significantly, tires have to last for qualifying and the
race now -- the days of 23-man pit crews are gone. No tire changes
during the race, except for dealing with punctures.

Understanding why the rule changes won't slow down the Ferrari Victory
Parade is a simple matter of internalizing this fact: they really are
that good. From the tiniest details of pit crew choreography up through
the talents of the drivers, the selection of race strategies, and of
course car and engine design and implementation, Ferrari's execution is,
for all intents and purposes, flawless. People talk about how much money
the team spends, but casually forget to mention that Toyota is spending
even more cash on a team that fares much worse.

So that's my dilemma. The racing fan in me wants to see the races,
because maybe something unexpected will happen. The dispassionate
analyst in me knows that I will just be paying $40 a month to watch a
race where the outcome is predetermined. And that feels dumb. There's no
need to watch a race live if there's no drama. I might as well just be
watching a highlight reel.

Hmm, now there's an interesting thought. I wonder if anyone will be
disseminating the races on the Internet after the fact...


--
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.

Hunter S. Thompson